The Independent Advisors

Mark covers last week’s sharp selloff in technology and AI stocks, and why history suggests this isn’t the start of something larger: October is historically the “bear killer” month, Q4 tends to be the strongest quarter, and this bull market just hit its fourth anniversary. He also looks at what history says about stocks under a split Congress, how different asset classes have performed when bond yields spike, why the stock market and the economy aren’t the same thing, and a new law renaming So

Episode 372 of The Independent Advisors Podcast: A Signal Not Seen Since the Financial Crisis. Mark and Matt cover a credit market signal not seen since before the financial crisis: stocks near highs while junk bonds and housing stocks diverge. They break down what credit spreads are and why they’ve been rising, a historical pattern showing stocks often lag after this setup, Q4 seasonality, record corporate profits as a share of GDP, and sustained strength in US manufacturing. They close with a

Mark and Matt cover the start of the strongest two-month stretch for stocks during a midterm year, a bearish Barron's magazine cover arriving alongside weak market breadth, and Q3 earnings growth estimates. They also look at a historically low reading on consumer sentiment and what it has meant for forward returns, surging US and China money supply, and a sharp selloff in municipal bonds. Taylor Ledbetter joins for the financial planning topic on a new financial risk facing teens and young adul

Episode 370 of The Independent Advisors Podcast: The Bullish Case for Bad News. Mark covers a historic rush into money market funds and cash-like ETFs, at levels historically associated with major market bottoms. He also looks at what history actually says about stocks after the Fed's first rate hike, a wave of bearish sentiment on AI that could be a contrarian signal, and where the market expects interest rates a year from now. The episode closes with a financial planning topic on how much cas

Matt covers a big week for the Fed, breaking down the first interest rate hike in three years and what it could mean for markets. He also looks at a fresh reading on M2 money supply growth, a rare and historically negative correlation between stocks and bond yields, and a historical dataset that runs against the common narrative, showing stocks have actually performed better after Fed rate hikes than after Fed rate cuts. The episode closes with a look at household net worth growth by income tie

Episode 368 of The Independent Advisors Podcast: Legacy Giving with The Dayton Foundation. This special episode steps outside the usual market conversation for a conversation with Mike Parks, President and CEO of The Dayton Foundation, and Michelle Lovely, Senior Vice President of Development and Donor Services at The Dayton Foundation. The conversation covers the Great Wealth Transfer and what it could mean for the region, the real difference between legacy giving and planned giving, practical